煤源紧张暂无解

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第一,旺季消费使市场乐观情绪升温。
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!important;”>整体上看,夏季消费高峰、电煤库存下降、采购需求增加、煤价降幅超预期等情况,使得市场的乐观情绪逐渐升温。主要体现在:一方面,当前正值夏季用电用煤的高峰时节,沿海地区发电企业的电煤日耗水平保持在较高状态,电煤采购数量随之增加;另一方面,经过前一段时期的“降库存”行动,发电企业、下游煤炭接卸港口和下游市场的贸易商的煤炭库存有所减少,动力煤的采购热情有所提高。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;”> 产地方面,portant;
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!important;”>受港口煤价上涨影响,晋北部分沫煤价格小幅反弹,近期煤矿销售情况正常,无库存;榆林榆阳区煤矿地销拉煤车辆较多,部分煤矿价格再次上调10元,由于终端和港口库存量大,煤矿预计后期煤价很难大幅上涨。神府地区个别煤矿由于原来报价低销售情况好转近日煤价上涨,但当地煤价整体较稳,需求也暂无好转迹象,煤矿对后市持观望态度;鄂尔多斯煤价整体较稳,个别矿有涨跌,港口涨价下游寻煤客户增多,小部分煤矿销售好转,价格小幅上涨10元,也有个别煤矿根据自己销售情况,对部分品种煤下调价格,当地煤矿预计后期价格跌幅不会太大,或许会随着港口市场反弹。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;”>portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>二、港口煤价延续上涨趋势:
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!important;”>截至3月6日,港口方面,秦皇岛港山西产动力末煤(Q5500)平仓价636.0元/吨,较上周上涨28.0元/吨。动力煤价格指数(RMB):CCI进口5500(含税)
641.0元/吨,较上周上涨28.0元/吨。产地方面,山西大同南郊弱粘煤423.0元/吨,较上周上涨8.0元/吨;内蒙古鄂尔多斯东胜大块精煤437.0元/吨,较上周上涨10.0元/吨。国际煤价,纽卡斯尔港动力煤现货价98.57美元/吨,较上周上涨3.63美元/吨。截止3月6日动力煤主力合约期货贴水5.4元/吨。

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内蒙古某煤矿表示,煤矿portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>Q5700portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡,portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>S0.3portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>的面煤含税portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>410portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元portant; word-wrap: break-word
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!important;”>吨,portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>Q6300portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>中块不含税portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>385portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元,三八块portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>405portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元,三六籽portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>395portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>/portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>吨,煤矿价格稳定,没有库存,最近环保还在查,不让堆煤。

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第三,期货价格先期反弹给现货市场带来信心。
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!important;”>期货市场上,动力煤主力合约的收盘价格在8月2日触及573.4元/吨的近期低点之后,先于现货市场煤价而出现持续性快速拉升,到8月10日,其收盘价格已经上涨到了621.6元/吨,6个交易日内其收盘价格的整体涨幅达到48.2元/吨或8.4%,这一走势也给现货煤价及其走势带来积极影响。

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!important;”>四、煤炭供给端:
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!important;”>本周国内重要港口库存小幅下降,周内库存水平均值portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>1169.9portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>万吨,较上周的portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>1177.3portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨下降portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>7.4portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨,降幅portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>0.6%portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>;下游电厂库存方面,本周六大电厂煤炭库存均值portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>1685.4portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>万吨,较上周下降portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>19.1portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨,降幅portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>1.1%portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>,较portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>18portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>年同期增加portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>317.8portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨,增幅portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>23.2%portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>;最新一期全国重点电厂库存portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>7064.0portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨,较上期下降portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>288.9portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨,降幅portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>3.9%portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>,较portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>18portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>年同期增加portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>796.5portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨,增幅portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>12.7%portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>。截至portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>3portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>月portant; word-wrap: break-word
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!important;”>日秦皇岛港港口吞吐量周环比下降portant; word-wrap:
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!important;”>万吨至portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>46.7portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>万吨。

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!important;”>一、主产地供应紧张局面暂无缓解:
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break-word !important;”>煤炭价格持续上涨。近期煤价在经历“portant;
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!important;”>”型波动后继续大幅快速上涨,一是产地煤炭结构性紧缺,产地煤价加速上涨,受矿难事故以及“两会”影响,煤矿复工复产进度缓慢,陕西榆林同意复工的两批煤矿中目前仅有一家通过验收,其他煤矿仍在等待验收状态,内蒙煤管票严格受限,产地供应不足,煤炭发运周期延长,部分产地煤价上涨超过portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>100portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元portant; word-wrap: break-word
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!important;”>吨。二是贸易商强力拉涨,发运到港价格倒挂。近期市场看涨情绪浓厚,产地煤价的快速上涨,导致发运到港价格倒挂严重,尽管买卖双方存在较大分歧,但煤贸商强拉报盘价,港口价格中枢上移。三是伴随下游需求释放,上游库存向下游转移,煤炭运价先行上涨,为现货价格的上涨提供了心理支撑。整体来看,短期内煤炭价格上行趋势仍偏强运行,重点关注“两会”后主产地煤矿复工复产进度以及供暖结束后需求端变化情况。

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对于煤炭价格的后市,
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!important;”>李学刚认为,portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>短期看,
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!important;”>虽然高库存、低日耗给现货煤价带来下行压力,但是在夏季消费高峰的支持下,portant;
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!important;”>月上旬之前现货动力煤价格下行的空间有限。portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>中长期看,
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break-word !important;”>8portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>月中旬之后,国内动力煤市场的供求关系或将从“紧平衡”向“相对宽松”过渡,现货动力煤价格回到绿色区间的概率较大。

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!important;”>二、又到一年的“迎峰度夏”的季节,煤炭的产需情况是如何呢?

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!important;”>三、煤炭需求端:
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!important;”>本周沿海六大电日耗均值为68.0万吨,较上周的67.6万吨增加0.5万吨,增幅0.7%,较18年同期的59.5万吨增加8.5万吨,增幅14.4%;3月7日六大电日耗为67.2万吨,周环比下降0.4万吨,降幅0.6%,同比增加2.8万吨,增幅4.4%,可用天数为24.8天,较上周同期下降0.5天,较去年同期增加3.6天。最新一期重点电厂日均耗煤364.0万吨,较上期增加23.3万吨,增幅6.8%;较18年同期增加16.0万吨,增幅4.6%。

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浙江某进口贸易商表示,最近了解到印尼煤有一些低价的,但是汇率还在贬值,算到到岸价基本没有什么变化,印尼portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>3800portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡煤小船型portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>FOB47.5portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>美金有报价的,portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>4700portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡煤portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>FOB66.5-67portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>美金。澳煤了解到portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>5500portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡煤有报价portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>FOB76portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>美金多的,还价很早就有portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>FOB70portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>美金的了,但没有实际愿意接的。国内在降价,后期进口煤走势也不乐观。

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第四,“一致性”行动加大了价格反弹力度。
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!important;”>随着环渤海地区动力煤市场透明化程度越来越高,涉煤各方对该地区动力煤市场的供求关系及其价格走势可以很快形成共识;与此同时,现货动力煤交易中的价格谈判与相关价格指数“对标”,提高了“一致性”行动的可行性。

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!important;”>三、港口和发电企业的高库存是如何形成的?

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;”> 港口方面,portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>北方港口portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>动力煤价格portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>继续高位,贸易商报价较乱,下游实际成交稀少。数据显示,热量5500大卡山西煤贸易商平仓价640元/吨,蒙煤报价多在630元/吨左右。由于沿海电厂日耗持续位于80万吨以上高位水平,部分电厂出现存煤紧张的情况,北上拉运积极性开始有所提升,从秦皇岛港口锚地船舶数量来看,8月10日至8月13日分别为62艘、63艘、71艘、76艘,短期之内需求好转带动北方港口煤价回升。受北方港口煤价上涨带动,国内动力煤气氛有所好转,华东和华南地区港口煤价也随之上涨,其中广州港煤价今日上涨10元/吨,5500大卡国内煤报价在650-660元/吨,宁波港煤价上涨10-15元/吨,累计涨幅在30元/吨左右,目前5500大卡动力煤报价675元/吨。

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国内某电厂表示,目前我们长协煤占总采购量的portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>60%portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>,年月长协各占一半,最近现货价格持续下跌,后期还有下跌预期在,市场煤采购暂时先放一放,接到上游报portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>5500portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡煤平仓价portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>660portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元,电厂还价目前是以指数下浮portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>5portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元。又有一轮台风将影响华东地区,后期看煤价还有下跌,预计下月价格portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>5500portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡可能到portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>610portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元左右的水平。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;”> 8月份以来,portant;
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!important;”>动力煤价格现货之所以出现快速反弹,应该缘于以下四个方面因素的共同作用:

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;”>下游方面,portant;
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!important;”>电厂库存依然偏高,价格继续上涨动力煤不足。截至8月13日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存为1530.26万吨,日耗煤量80.86万吨,可用天数18.9天。夏季用煤高峰期接近尾声,电厂对于后期需求并不看好,虽然港口煤价出现持续上涨,但主产地出矿基本维持平稳,portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>动力煤价格portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>以走稳为主。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;”>portant; word-wrap:
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今天,进入新的一周,煤市继续处于较为艰难但速度较快的价格“反转”之中。

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值得注意的是,当前港口和发电企业的煤炭库存偏高。

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近年来,我国煤炭行业去产能步伐不断加快,淘汰化解落后产能效果显著,行业逐步回暖,企业利润率持续提升,迎来了行业中的“白银时代”。尽管当前的煤炭行业走出了portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>2012—2015portant; word-wrap:
break-word !important;”>年的低谷,当下煤炭形势仍面临机遇和挑战。

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近期“一致性”行动的具体表现是,portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>在现货动力煤价格触底之后,消费企业和中间贸商的“询盘”开始增多、煤炭生产和发运企业开始“捂盘”、托盘资金助力“囤煤”、航运价格快速拉升并促使船舶到港量增加,最终导致现货动力煤的供不应求局面逐渐增强,从而促使现货动力煤价格加速反弹。

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内蒙某港口贸易商表示,目前压根没有客户找我们采购,现在还有十几万的库存着急出,价格肯定撑不住。今天市场上portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>5500portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡煤平仓价portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>650-660portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元,portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>5000portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡煤portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>570-575portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元。我们portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>5000portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡现在出货报价也就是portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>575portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元的样子。港口库存高,下游不着急拿货,后期价格还得继续下跌,个人看portant;
word-wrap: break-word !important;”>5000portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>大卡能降至portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>600portant; word-wrap: break-word
!important;”>元附近。

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第二,现货动力煤的“惜售”情节逐渐增强。
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!important;”>自6月下旬到7月底,环渤海地区现货动力煤价格出现了持续甚至加速下降走势,吨煤的整体降幅甚至达到了近100元,这种“超跌”走势导致煤炭发运企业的销售成本与销售价格之间的“倒挂”倾向愈加明显,进而促使“惜售”情节逐渐增强。

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